Russian wheat export hits new highs
日志
Wheat Exporter: Russia Beats EU, US 俄罗斯成新超级粮商
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World’s Top Breadbasket: Russia Becoming Leading Wheat Exporter Beating EU, US
10:25 26.08.2016(updated 10:41 26.08.2016)
https://sputniknews.com/russia/20160826/1044655949/russia-wheat-export.html
With its wheat exports for this year and next projected at a record 30 million tons, Russia has edged past its main competitors, the EU and the US, to become the world’s top exporter of this staple crop, business magazine Expert wrote.
Russia has consistently been ramping up its wheat exports to global markets as part of the government’s effort to revive the country’s agriculture with the state and leading companies pouring money into the sector amid the sanctions that have cut food imports.
A weak ruble and poor crops in Germany and France have also been a factor in Russia’s record wheat exports, including to countries it has never sold grain before.
Russia has consistently been ramping up its wheat exports to global markets as part of the government’s effort to revive the country’s agriculture with the state and leading companies pouring money into the sector amid the sanctions that have cut food imports.
A weak ruble and poor crops in Germany and France have also been a factor in Russia’s record wheat exports, including to countries it has never sold grain before.
Russia’s entry into new grain markets is bad news for the traditional exporters in North America, Europe and Australia with importers now able to buy for less.
During the past two months Russia has already sold its wheat to Mexico, which previously relied entirely on imported US grain, and has also signed export deals with Algeria and Morocco – both of them traditional buyers of grain from France.
The list of new buyers of Russian wheat includes Mali, Malta and Burma. According to information provided by Grain Quality Service state-owned company, Russia will export wheat also to Indonesia, until now the biggest buyer of Australian wheat, as well as traditional clients as Egypt, Bangladesh and Mozambique.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture has once again raised its forecast of the harvest and of wheat exports in Russia in the current season.
The forecast for the gross yield of Russian wheat increased to 72 million tons, which is 7 million tons more than the July forecast and 11 million tons above the level of last season.
According to the USDA, Russian wheat exports are set to reach a record 30 million tons putting Russia in first place in supplying wheat to the world market, ahead of the European Union, which exports only 27 million tons of grain.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture has once again raised its forecast of the harvest and of wheat exports in Russia in the current season.
The forecast for the gross yield of Russian wheat increased to 72 million tons, which is 7 million tons more than the July forecast and 11 million tons above the level of last season.
According to the USDA, Russian wheat exports are set to reach a record 30 million tons putting Russia in first place in supplying wheat to the world market, ahead of the European Union, which exports only 27 million tons of grain.
The United States’ projected wheat export for the 2016/2017 season is 25.5 million tons.
In July, Russia exported around 2.5 million tons of wheat, and the August figure is projected at between 3 million and 3.2 million tons.
According to a BMI Research forecast, in the next five years Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will emerge as the main suppliers of wheat to the Middle East and North Africa.
Russia on course to become world's largest wheat exporter for first time
August 30, 2016
http://rbth.com/business/2016/08/30/russia-on-course-to-become-worlds-largest-wheat-exporter-for-first-time_625361
Due to a large harvest, the country's export potential amounts to 30 million tons of wheat in the 2016/2017 agricultural year, which is an absolute record for the last few years. However, export growth is constrained by low prices on the world market and export duties imposed in 2014 for fear of price growth in the country.
Combine harvesters work on a wheat field of the Solgonskoye farming company near the village of Talniki, southwest from Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk. Source: Reuters
In mid-August 2016, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), whose analytical service is considered to be one of the world's most respected, announced a sensation: In the 2016/17 agricultural year, "Russia is forecast to be the world’s largest exporter for the first time ever."
According to the department, the country has achieved this outstanding result due to ideal conditions such as optimal weather for loading, effective management of the movement of grain through ports, and steady supplies throughout the year.
A record forecast
According to the USDA forecast, Russia will be able to sell 30 million tons of wheat on the world market, ahead of all the 28 EU countries combined. This year’s crop failure in France and Italy (the former of which is the EU’s largest exporter) opens up new markets for Russia.
"Russia has freight and logistical advantages to growth markets in North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and can easily grow its market share in these regions to replace a portion of the curtailed EU exports," the report said.
According to USDA data, Russia will collect a total of 72 million tons of wheat this year. Russia's Agriculture Ministry predicts 73 million tons of wheat, as it also takes into account the crop harvested in Crimea.
"Russia is breaking its own historical record for export of all grains for the second year in a row," Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, told RBTH.
According to Russia's Agriculture Ministry, Russia exported a record 34 million tons of grain in the last agricultural year, including 25 million tons of wheat. "This year, Russia will be able to sell 37 to 40 million tons of grain," said Zlochevsky.
Russia is not the only country that collected a record harvest this year. Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the United States have also become agrarian leaders, the USDA report indicated. "The record wheat production has caused a drop in prices on the international market," Zlochevsky said.
The catch? Low prices
However, wheat exporters cannot get record profits due to low prices. According to the National Union of Grain Producers, the price of Class 4 wheat (the main export item) fell by 33 percent to $138 per ton from June 1 to Aug. 26, 2016.
"Since consumption growth is not catching up with the pace of production, there is a risk that we will not be able to sell the entire volume assigned for export," Zlochevsky warned.
In addition to low prices, wheat exports are hindered by protective duties introduced by Russia in 2014. "Because of the devaluation of the ruble, export has become very attractive," said Natalya Shagaida of the Center for Agricultural and Food Policy at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. "To prevent an increase in export and a hike in grain and bread prices in the domestic market, the government introduced export duties on wheat."
The restrictive measures in the face of declining ruble have put producers in a difficult situation, limiting their income, said Shagaida: "Farmers have been forced to spend more and more money on fuel, protective equipment, components for imported machinery as all this is linked to the national currency's exchange rate."
In addition, because of the duties, exporters switched to short-term contracts of less than two to three months, and stopped forming reserves, which is also reflected in the price of wheat, Zlochevsky added.
Fearing a slowdown in sales, on Aug. 1, 2016, Russia's Ministry of Agriculture asked the government to abolish the export duty on wheat. However, the government is yet to respond to the Agriculture Ministry's request.
"The ruble has now stabilized, which reduces the risk of growth in grain prices," said Shagaida. "In this connection, the abolition of the duty is an expected step."
Russia, reconquering grain markets
Hiba El Dahr, Agriculture Policy Officer, development and international trade
Centre for Studies and Planning, Ministry of Agriculture
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发表时间：2016-10-09 17:37:20
http://www.guancha.cn/economy/2016_10_09_376581.shtml
据华尔街见闻10月9日报道，从黑海沿岸到伏尔加河中心区域，再到阳光炙烤的西伯利亚大草原，俄罗斯大片大片的农作物正在风中摇曳，欢喜地展现着它们旺盛的生命力，特别是粮食。
在国际粮食市场上，俄罗斯正取代美国和欧盟，成为新一代领导者。这个国家正忙于夺回其在沙皇统治时期的世界小麦出口“霸主”地位。去年7月至今年6月，俄小麦出口量达2460万吨，几十年来首次超过美国。美国农业部预计，俄罗斯有望继续保持这一势头，今年的小麦出口量有可能超越欧盟。
根据俄农业部发布的数据，截至8月29日，俄罗斯已经收获8930万吨粮食，同比增收24%，其中包括小麦6180万吨，同比增长29.56%。
预计2017年俄罗斯的小麦产量将会超过美国和欧盟（图片来自彭博社）
在全球最大的小麦进口国埃及，俄罗斯小麦已经把曾经遍地充斥着的美国小麦挤了出去，并且还在尼日利亚、孟加拉和印度尼西亚等国家找到了立足点。过去十年，俄罗斯一直是全球小麦出口增长方面的最大单一来源。
彭博社援引美国堪萨斯州立大学的研究成果表示，肥沃的土壤、政府的大力支持和拥有靠近黑海主要港口这一优势，都意味着俄罗斯的粮食成本最低能降到中东粮食市场上的主要国际对手的一半左右。
俄罗斯粮食种植业的利润非常高。64岁的俄罗斯农场主Viktor Borodaev对彭博社说，去年他的公司利润率最高曾达到90%，预计今年会更高。
俄罗斯粮食产业的繁荣发展吸引了大批投资者，从当地农民到亿万富豪，再到跨国农产品贸易公司，都争相在该国开展相关投资，包括新加坡农产品贸易商奥兰国际（Olam International）、全球四大农产品贸易巨头之一嘉吉（Cargill）、大宗商品贸易巨头嘉能可（Glencore）。这些国际巨头们的资金遍布在从储藏到出口终端的俄罗斯粮食全产业链。
农业领域尤其是粮食产业的投资大幅增长让俄罗斯过去几年迎来了大丰收，卢布暴贬45%助推该国出口了数千万吨粮食。国内有限的存储空间也使得大部分俄罗斯农作物在收割之后不久便被出售，这进一步压低了出口价格。
俄罗斯政府也针对本国粮食出口颁布了优惠政策。该国农业部9月下旬表示，自9月23日起，俄罗斯小麦出口将实行零关税，这个政策将实施到2018年7月。
俄罗斯小麦田（资料图）
追根溯源，俄罗斯农业崛起要追溯到大约十年前政府允许土地自由买卖。当时，政策巨变掀起了一股投资新的农业设备、化肥的新浪潮，很多闲置多年的土地也被扩大为农耕之用。政府过去数年也对农业提供了补贴。
俄罗斯农业机械设备的现代化技术也起到了一定的助推作用：拖拉机配载着GPS全球定位系统，可以在司机三班倒的情况下进行24小时连续作业。
当然，适宜的天气也是俄罗斯粮食大丰收背后的重要因素。
俄罗斯农业部长特卡乔夫预测，预计2016年将出口大约3500-4000万吨粮食。该国计划到2020年将粮食产量增至1.2亿吨。
俄罗斯农业部长特卡乔夫3月在向总统普京汇报工作时称，俄罗斯土地辽阔，有条件种植纯绿色粮食，因此将不生产与转基因技术有关的粮食。通过开发未种植的新土地，俄罗斯未来10至15年的粮食产量将再增加1500万到2000万吨。
俄罗斯也正在千方百计地扩大对中国的农产品出口。中国是全球农产品消费大国之一。俄罗斯卫星网8日报道称，据俄联邦动植物卫生监督局发布的公告，中国批准了俄对华小麦、玉米、大米、大豆和菜籽出口商和相应粮库的名单，总计有大约200家俄罗斯企业将对华进行粮食出口。
俄罗斯农业部今年1月称，计划显著增加对中国的粮食出口量，争取在2017年对中国的粮食出口量增加到30万到35万吨，在随后几年将增加到70万至100万吨。
由于在提供的粮食中发现小麦印度腥与矮腥黑穗病，中国农业部1997年禁止从俄罗斯等一系列国家进口粮食，这些病害不是寄生病，但它们能让粮食不适合农业使用。
（文/华尔街见闻 祁月）
